10.19.11 Republican Field Analysis

Election 2012 Series: The Republican Primary




            So you know... I get nearly as excited for a political debate as I do for an NFL playoff game, popcorn and all. I find it fascinating to watch people attempt to win public opinion, what messages work, and who seems genuine or not. 


After last nights debate on CNN, I figure I'll go on the record at a crucial time in the primary process. 
With early primary states rushing to the top of the calendar to see who goes first, We now face a scenario where the first vote will be cast in less than two months. Its time that the voters begin to tune in, and determine one of our two options to lead U.S.... There's no looking back once there are two.


(I want this to be helpful, so please add your own comments at the end of this post.)


Here are my opinions of each candidate, and a grade on where they stand to this point in the process. I will formally endorse a candidate before the Iowa Caucus, but it is important to assess progress along the way to test their composure under immense pressure.


(Order same as Debate stage)


Rick Santorum:  C+


       He had a rough start coming out. He was a bit goofy, and was caught off guard with sound-bite statements that he was not effective enough to fend off. He is a proud Catholic, and he began to clarify what that would mean if he were president, for the press who seem to fear people of faith. He is a down the line conservative, meaning fiscally, socially, and in Defense.
He has been consistent with his messages, and has a solid record of doing what he says he'll do. He won in Pennsylvania where Bush did not win, and beat an incumbent Democrat in a blue state to get in. He has not communicated well enough to make people want to follow him though, and if he keeps complaining about coverage, they'll take him off the stage all together.


Ron Paul:  B-


        Ron Paul is a Libertarian. One of the only politicians who you can sum up with one word, and they will have no qualms about it.
What that entails is an isolationist view of foreign policy, where we bring back all troops, cut all foreign aid, and worry about freedom at home. He believes our over reach domestically and abroad has caused many of our problems, and if we pull it all back now, things will work themselves out naturally. 
He believes government is just the problem, and should be minimized substantially. He  has a solid group of followers who completely agree, and he has expanded that base by staying true and consistent to his beliefs. I think he needs power to go shake up bureaucrats in DC, and should be appointed to a position where he can do that, but he cannot hold the position of Commander in Chief.


John Huntsman:  F


     What a disappointment. He worked as Ambassador to China for Obama, then quits to say he's running for president... 
I was excitement to hear him tell that story. From what I heard of him prior, when he walked in a room, you knew he was someone special. They always say its like that when you meet a president.
He did show up with the look... of a career politician. He is an awkward man. Son of a politician, he seems lost in his own image. He absolutely did a great job as governor of Utah, and served his country going to China, but he his far to caught up in himself to have a country give him their trust at a time like this.

Herman Cain:  A-

      The man with a plan... I must say, after watching various interviews and debates with him, he has quickly gained my admiration. As a man, he has achieved so much to be in this position today.

Yes, he is the pizza guy. Former CEO of Godfather Pizza, who once managed Burger Kings, and was raised on humble beginnings. He's easy to relate to, and speaks directly. 9 9 9 is something. It is a way to get people to debate the tax system without falling asleep.

His challenge... he is surrounded by politicians and media in Washington who act like the click that won't let outsiders in the ruling class. He can overcome them only by exciting the electorate, which wants someone to "change" the ways of Washington, stay true to their word, and be blunt with the American people. 

He may just do it if he can defend 9 9 9 in the face of the establishment, or offer alternatives flexibly that will achieve the same economic boost. 
He needs someone to ask him as if it were a business interview: 
" How did you react when you put a plan in place that did not achieve the goals you set out with? Can you change course? " If he answers that right, we will have a problem solver.

Mitt Romney:  A-

         Romney is showing that he learns from mistakes and adjusts, based on his much improved campaign the second time around. His debate performances are steady, and he has stayed quiet raising money and finding early endorsements like Christie and other north east Republicans.

         I am still undecided on whether I would call him awkward or just hard to relate to. I have seen two sides to him: 
   One... another typical politician, with the hair and the image that seems too perfect to believe
   Two... a genuine, simple, smart guy who is a little inverted, but confident in his vision for the country. 
          If he can build trust, as he did last time around at CPAC before bowing out, he will be the nominee of the current field.

Newt Gingrich:  A-


          Newt is the best policy guy in the room. When you give him the time to speak, he demonstrates a depth of knowledge that is hard to find among the majority of the politicians out there. He worked with Reagan and Clinton... a true statesman. 
If we want a president to actually communicate and explain himself specifically, Newt is him. 
He announced in last nights debate that he would propose (7) 3 hour debates alone with the President, no moderator. Just two candidates discussing their beliefs and solutions. This is something I talked about four years ago when Newt was contemplating a run. I believe he will make Obama look lost when comparing political philosophy's. The President would be forced to explain his ideology with Newt, and the country would see the most stark contrast for two very different visions. 
Newt is my sleeper pick right now.


Rick Perry:  B-

             Perry has been a big disappointment. Once an early favorite, he has been surprisingly inept at communicating conservative values, or even in pointing out his obvious successes as a governor of Texas. It may be that he is too simple, or just lazy, but when he accused Romney of hiring illegals when it was a recycled story from years back... he lost me. You have to be able to show up to the debate of your life with something better than that...

             He still has raised a lot of money and is not completely out, but with Newt, Cain & Romney holding strong, I don't know why he would get a third chance. 

Michelle Bachmann:  B-


             The congresswoman is a complicated explanation for me. On the one hand, I agree with her on nearly every issue. She is a hell of a fighter in congress, and brilliant when it comes to how Washington works. 
On the other hand, she seems a bit disconnected. I have been unimpressed throughout the years with her sensationalist ways of getting attention. To be honest, I believe she does not have the image to win a general election. I think she would force far too many superficial votes for Obama, and lose the election.
I believe she would make a great speaker of the house though, so long as she tones down the rhetoric and gets to work. 




To sum it up, I think there are four candidates still viable:


Romney, who needs to build trust that he will grow the economy and shrink the size and scope of the federal government.


Cain, who must prove that he can work as a change agent in Washington, and demonstrate the judgement necessary to be the leader of the free world.


Newt, who needs to develop two things... likability, which he is making progress on with the laughs he gets at each debate. The other is to shorten his message to make his vision more understandable. There are too many short attention spans to read his 21st CENTURY CONTRACT WITH AMERICA.
  
Perry, who needs to stop attacking Romney and start communicating his solutions with more depth. Describe why Texas is successful, and how he will make America successful. Sadly, it may be too late.




What do you think? You have a favorite or feel there is something missing from this field? Post your comments below!